Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Focus On Expectations?
Jeff Miller | Jan 13, 2013 01:45AM ET
Sometimes the market focus is firmly in the present, or even in the past. More frequently we expect markets to be forward-looking.
At the moment, "the present" includes earnings reports influenced by Sandy and fiscal cliff uncertainty. The same is true for many of the economic numbers.
"The future" raises key questions:
- Will business investment increase?
- Will consumers show more confidence about their jobs and their futures?
- Will companies provide stronger statements about their 2013 outlook?
- Will our political leaders avoid another debt ceiling "crisis"?
The past data will be rather negative. The future invites differing interpretations.
I have some thoughts on the forward look which I'll report in the conclusion. First, let us do our regular update of last week's news and data.
Background on "Weighing the Week Ahead"
There are many good lists of upcoming events. One source I especially like is the weekly post from the WSJ's writes as follows :
That’s because the market discounts 12-month forward consensus expected earnings. A good proxy for this concept is forward earnings, i.e., the time-weighted average of consensus estimates for the current and coming years. It tends to be a good 12-month leading indicator for actual profits, with one important exception: Analysts don’t see recessions coming until we all do too.
The bottom line is that the bottom line for S&P 500 companies on a 12-month (and on a 52-week) forward basis rose to a record high at the beginning of this year even though analysts have been lowering their estimates for 2012 and 2013.
Here is the chart he cites:
It looks like a confirmation of current forward earnings forecasts. (Just go back one year on each blue line). This would be a surprise to a skeptical market, so it bears watching.
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